One Belt One Road China Turkey and World
Süleyman ŞENSOY
Süleyman ŞENSOY
TASAM Başkanı / Chairman
Release Date : 1/28/2016
One Belt One Road China Turkey and World
The Summary; Turkey and China have been developing an effective strategical cooperation according to the sustainability of long lasted profits that have a critical importance. At this point, we are supposed to look after the events with a wider geopolitical view. To move relations between two countries to an ideal point in a global power system which has been shaping in a multi-dimensional way; these relations shouldn’t only tend towards to a construction that can create a common deepening on the political and strategical basement, but also on each parameters. Hence, militarily and cultural dimensions have a different importance, here.
 
In the context of Afro-Eurasia, Turkey who has been controlling the whole strategical passing routes; has a key importance for all the moral and material potential items that have been representing the Silk Road. What will happen to both integration of the Silk Road and new international system; which has been shaping by the competition parameters as “micro-nationality”, “integration” and “unpredictability”, has been depending on how Turkey-Russia relations will go on. There has been a hope on China to make necessary multidimensional analysis including the pressures on both countries while China has been developing the policies in the same context.
 
Key Words; Proportional hazard, common dependence, silk road, integration, micro-nationality, unpredictability, change of the state nature, expectation management, competition, Afro-Eurasia, soft power, participation, sectoral diplomacy, reference values
 
 
Turkey and China
 
Turkey has increasingly grown as an important actor with its 75 million population, developing and expanding economy, geostrategic position in the middle of Afro-Eurasian mainland; historical, political, cultural connections with the European, Black Sea, Caucasian, Asian, Middle Eastern and African countries, its activity in the international arena, particularly in the UN; its stand as one of the most important members of NATO, OSCE and CICA; and its recently advanced foreign policy.
 
People’s Republic of China, on the other hand, has become apparent as an important power that grabs attention worldwide with its surface area, 1.3 billion population, natural resources, progress in the fields of industry and technology, veto power in the UN, position in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and newly developed foreign policy strategies. 
 
Turkey-China relations have been depending on B. C. 2000s by having a highly deep-rooted historical background because of the Silk Road. Dual contacts have intensely protected its vitality till 1400s because of the Silk Road. After China has begun the policy of foreign expansion in 1979; there have been superior visits between Turkey and China, but that couldn’t be continuously kept under-control after 1985. Turkey-PRC relations have gain a speed politically and economically in 2003 and have reached the optimum level in each fields since 2009. In 2010, the relations have increased into a different level with the strategical cooperation document that has been accepted by the Prime Ministers of both countries.
 
Turkey and China have common profits on the fields of geopolitics and security in the Middle East and Central Asia. By considering the energy security and terrorist activities which have been increasing day by day, it is important to provide peace and security in these regions for the profits of both countries. High development rates captured by Turkey and China recently urge both Turkey and China to take each other into consideration in terms of economy. Turkey is an exit to Balkans and Europe; and a well economical partner in the Middle East and Central Asia by the view of China. Also China is a partner that should strengthen common relations in the fields related to politics, economy and security by the views of Turkey.
 
Turkey gives special importance to cooperate with China also in the case of developing the relations with Asian countries. In this regard, Turkey attaches great importance to SCO. In addition, Turkey has been accepted as a dialogue partner of SCO by the supports of PRC, Russian Federation (RF) and the other member countries. So, Turkey is focusing on carrying its relations to a better point in lots of areas from international trade to security cooperation; and is intensifying its relations with international organizations such as ASEAN.
 
PRC, surpassing Japan and South Korea, has become the biggest trade partner for Turkey among the Asia-Pacific nations as of the period of January-June, 2003. In parallel with the trading volume, the relations between the two countries have gained speed.
 
The most important problem regarding Turkish-Chinese relations is ever increasingly grooving trade deficit in favor of China. This situation has existed the result of being held under the microscope of economic and commercial relations in the level of Governments. Trade deficit arises mainly from Chinese trade policies but there are reasons regarding the Turkish side as well. Besides the original advantages of China in the foreign commerce; the problem has been deepened because of the timid positions of Turkish businessmen in the case of investing this country. However statesmen from PRC have expressed that they have been encouraging Chinese companies about investments in Turkey at the superior visits that have been held during the latest three years’ period. There has been an expectation about this expression to be actuated. Also PRC has begun to offer advantaged financial opportunities to the energy and infrastructure projects in Turkey.
 
Turkey has tried to take the support of China, who is the permanent member of UN Security Council, about the other international problems leading Cyprus. Comparing with the past, PRC has a more sensitive approach about the issues including Cyprus that Our Country has given sensibility. In the following period, paralleled to the raising effect of Turkey in the international platforms; the cooperation opportunity in the fields of politics, economy, culture and security between two countries within the organizations such as UN, G-20, CICA, ASEAN and SCO will be able to strengthen the base more and more.
 
Both countries can develop an effective strategic cooperation ground regarding the sustainability of the long term interests that bear great importance for both China and Turkey. At this point, it is important to look at the events in a broader geopolitical point of view. In order to bring the Turkish-Chinese relations to an ideal point in the world system that is increasingly gaining a multidimensional appearance, Turkish and Chinese policy makers must steer for a structure that may constitute mutual depth not only on the political and strategic grounds but in the all parameters. Hence, militarily and cultural dimensions have a different importance, here.
 
In the following titles; the developments that will be recorded in all of the platforms leading on “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Silk Road over Sea” will be determinant for Turkey-China relations:
-Industrial and Financial Deepening
-Security and Defense Industry
-Investment, Trade, Infrastructure and the Contracting
-Public Diplomacy; Local Authorities, Civil Society, Think Tanks and Media
-Change of State Nature, Expectation Management and Multidimensional Security
-ASEAN Region, Shanghai Cooperation Organization etc. and Integration in Asia
-Energy, Water and Food Security
-Science and Technology, Academy and Culture
-The Middle East - Africa, South and Central Asia
 
 
Turkey and Silk Road
 
The rise of economic volumes of the states on the route with the new comment of the Silk Road, which begins from China and reaches out Rome over the Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Turkey and Greece, will be possible with the innovation of economies that has a size of 21 trillion dollars in total in 65 countries.

Each way has been absolutely passing through Turkey conveniently to the historical experience in the Project that has been designed to be built on five routes as three out of five on the sea and two out of five on the road.
 
 
Thanks to the Project, an opportunity of rise to the new level of trade volume of all related countries and the rise over the double of present trade volume for China will be possible. As a strict integration model, it is possible for the present initiative to turn into a new integration model by inspiring the “failure in success” experience of EU and flexible references in the history. Five foreseen main title have been confirming this model:
-Connection of Policy (to take precautions of local cooperation by the countries on the route)
-Connection of Facility (to build main transportation road by shaping the infrastructure plans and standards by the countries on the route)
-Connection of Commerce (to take facilitative precautions for the investment and trade of the countries)
-Connection of Fund (financial cooperation)
-Connection of Heart (cooperation of culture, academy, human resources, tourism, science, technology and press)
 
In the context of Afro-Eurasia, Turkey who has been controlling the whole strategical passing routes; has a key importance for all the moral and material potential items that have been representing the Silk Road. What will happen to both integration of the Silk Road and new international system; which has been shaping by the competition parameters as “Micro-nationality”, “integration” and “unpredictability”, has been depending on how Turkey-Russia relations will go on. There has been a hope on China to make necessary multidimensional analysis including the pressures on both countries while China has been developing the policies in the same context.
 
 
New World and Competition
 
It is the first time in the history that countries, which have lots of technological equipment and human resources in global and local levels that have been so close to each other, have seemed in the same time by the existence of multidimensional power system in the global area. This multidimensional ground has been the basement of extraordinary sophisticated competition. 
 
The latest decade has witnessed highly important developments and the policies that will be followed in the next decade will have a determinant effect on how international structure will be shaped in the following century. Especially the Western world has faced with an important resource crisis in the “debt-money-debt” spiral and the basis of geopolitical competition has been focused on the opening of the new fields that can create the sources.
 
Multidimensional competition has constituted three new basic parameters as “integration”, “micro-nationality” and “unpredictability”. As first, the results of these new parameters have seemed in the processes described with various names such as “Arab Spring” in the North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. The experiences in these three locations and their results have very different meanings according to traditional powers, new power candidates and all other countries. The instability of “the other countries” on which has been competed is majorly inevitable and that will be shaped according whether their managements will be able to manage the change of the state nature. Ukraine and Syria are the most concrete samples, here.
It is possible to claim that the process of “Arab Spring” has transformed into the perception of a “global spring” or that it has made this perception visible. Here are three basic trend in this “global spring”;
-Big risks that a country or a region cannot overcome alone such as global challenges, climate change, weapons of mass destruction and chemical disasters,
-Uncertainties in the point of what kind of role will be given in UN and other international institutions to powers which have shown up in the new period; how systematical union will be provided; in other words how the balance of power and justice will be provided,
-As seen in the examples of changing the state nature, capitalism in China by the hand of state, social democracy applications in Europe; the rapid change of application values and contents of present ideologies such as socialism, communism and liberalism.
 
“Expectation Management” is a new parameter for the states and in the case of bad management, it is inevitable that various expectations and tendencies in some countries and regions will be used by foreign powers.
 
These three global trend can be resulted with one of three different scenarios: “Democratization in global level”, “Dissolution in the basis of identity policies”, “The possibility to develop a new global “resource management system” in the condition of using the whole resource elements such as natural sources, religion, human capital in the same time”. Also present developments have put forth a dissolution in the basis of identity policies.
 
In the following period, it is possible to find several local, regional and global problem fields which have concerned lots of countries so closely leading the actors such as China and Turkey: in the context of “water, energy and food security” and “defining social and liberal political priorities”, “change in the state nature and expectation management”, “review of close regions’ policies against domestic and foreign political risks”, “precautions that should be taken against new economic integration efforts as in the agreements of Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific trade and investment partnerships in a global level”, “macro policy that has political, economic, sectoral unity” and “development of values whose ethical and moral references are strong” have stand out as the issues that should be urgently analyzed and politically developed.
 
 
One Belt One Road “Silk Road”
 
In this point, the initiative of “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Silk Road over Sea”, which have been initiated by China, has been offering historical opportunities according to overcome values depression that has been experienced in the world with dual and multilateral relations. A “business model” which doesn’t prioritize salt aggressive economic cooperation; will be able to affect positively the results, which have been turning into an unmanageable point, of global competition parameters, which have been shaped as micro-nationality, integration and unpredictability. Because Silk Road is the first flexible global integration of the history with all of its references.
 
In this context, it is possible to generate concrete suggestions without repeting the known aims of the initiative.
 
 
Building Soft Power
 
International relations have been progressing on the basis of multidimensional competition. The state nature has been changing; while the role of the state has been regressing to the level of 10% in the success of domestic and foreign policy by the condition of having golden share that produces law and takes the latest decision, searches for different ways have been going on among the statist and capitalist/liberalist approaches; new applications such as public diplomacy have come into play; roles of the institutions and structures such as think tanks, NGO’s, universities, local managements, cultural institutions, sportive formations, private sector have been increasing.
 
The concept of “Expectation Management” has been shaped as the newest perception that should be discussed for the states. Defensive reflexes/ institutions of the countries, which cannot perceive the change of the state nature, have become functionless in the continuously increasing rates. Even if the factors such as religion, language, history and geography have been protecting their importance in the point of totally evoking soft power capacities of the countries; to become a regional or global power will be possible only with taking a qualified share from the division of international labor by having an economy and property that generates high added value based on qualified human resource. In this context, the initiative of “One Belt One Road” should be structured as the locomotive of the development of global soft power program for China. It is not possible to find highly strong references for any other program.
 
 
Participation and Building Interdependency
 
The success of this process depends on developing multidimensional structures conveniently to the priorities of domestic and foreign policy on the base of proportional risk and interdependency in all of the country and regions. It is essential to have official and civil institutional equipment that will build interdependency and capacity; and to mobilize all present institutions without excluding them with ideological prejudices.
 
Also important discourses that will be generated without a development of capacity program don’t give permanent result excluding the activation of early warning systems. It is urgency that the necessity of China to concept approaches also including moral factors by analyzing rivals well who China has been competing in economy and foreign policy. In this confrontation, the mental threshold in front of China is sectoral, financial and strategical deepening.
 
Dynamics of the 21st century that depends on multipolar Global Spring, which has been developing in the frame of micro-nationality, integration and unpredictability, have been pointing that balance sharing between the East and the West won’t be “so easy and painless”. History experiences have been rejected to think that Western centered states, which succeed to keep their financial systems -de facto fallen in 2008- alive by the equipment that will risk their existences, have been sharing an easy role. After 100 years, the world has been shared again as “countries who competes and who are competed”.
 
The areas, which are competed among the Western countries who have speed up economic and political integration in Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific; and the new power candidates in the East and the South, have been shaped as North Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Central Asia. To stay the countries, which have located on these belts, out of this heavy turbulence -without entering any chaos- depends on the wisdom of management levels to a large extent and the transformation of its institutional infrastructure. In fact; the chaos spiral, which lots of countries that have not these conditions are entering almost one by one, has been confirming the situation.
 
The formula is encouraging the participation and deepening the interdependency without dominating the initiative “One Belt One Road” by China who cannot still get out of the position of being a “Limes” line between the areas and countries who are competed. Historical experience has been confirming that the first choice of the West is to develop one-sided dependence with the rest of the world. In this context, the biggest capacity that China will develop as a new power candidate will be sincere applications in the direction of interdependency and participation. The Silk Road initiative is a historical opportunity in this parameter.
 
Commercial balances of China with lots of countries and regions have been speeding up the discussions of being the new imperialist of the world. Africa is an area which should be followed in this sense. So, the fact how Silk Road initiative will be performed can put a new model to the forth.
 
  
Forming Sectoral Diplomacy Channels
 
China will be able to handle more easily with new challenges that have been existed in this period in case of mobilizing all institutional civil diplomacy equipment on the global scaled and sub regional or identical issues. At this point, first of all it is necessary to overcome political obstacles. This solution, which is directly related with political wills of related countries, is possible with overcoming the prejudices based on historical baggage among the countries, national profits and dependences related with identity. Most of the time, countries have been choosing to strengthen civil diplomacy channels which are also described as “second track diplomacy”  for compensating inferiority of effect and fertility of traditional official diplomacy which derived of inability about excluding certain treatment patterns and legal limitations.
 
Two of the most important factors of civil diplomacy are to increase cultural interaction among the publics and to increase the interaction among the business grounds. Also, one another important factor is the activities that have been maintaining by academical environments and think tanks. Except for these three basic factors, sectoral diplomacy channels which have been using strong instruments have been recently existed. Thanks to civil diplomacy, the parties can make idea exchange in a wider frame without feeling themselves under pressure of harsh rules of official diplomacy; can develop perspective and cooperation; can suggest necessary decision options for the politics.
 
In this context, civil diplomacy channels can be formed in the concept of the Silk Road initiative on the titles below or the discussions and negotiations over these titles can be managed:
-Humanitarian Diplomacy
-Defense Diplomacy
-Health Diplomacy
-Belief Diplomacy
-Culture and Art Diplomacy
-Education Diplomacy
-Food Diplomacy
-Energy Diplomacy
-Tourism Diplomacy
-Security Diplomacy
-City Diplomacy
-Finance Diplomacy
-Media and Information Diplomacy
-Infrastructure Diplomacy
-Science Diplomacy
-Business Diplomacy
-Opinion Diplomacy
-Water Diplomacy
-Service Diplomacy
 
 
Silk Road Reference Values Institutions Persons
 
China, where has been on an interaction basin among civilizations in which archaic humanity saving has left a mark in the most colorful and permanent way, has a special and highly important location in the process of dynamic globalization and interaction among the civilizations. China has a special saving with an extensive modernization experience. So, China has been directly reflecting the East-the West tensions in the sense of tradition-modernization and the North-the South in the sense of economy-politics; and has been extensively the main among the countries.
 
In cultural sense, China has a special place among the rare countries who has an ability of transportation to the history scene by interiorizing the archaic mystery of the East and the rational opinion tradition of the West, the economic productivity of the North and the global justice search of the South, all together. Its location can provide China to be a pioneer of a big expansion in the context of civilization. It is necessary to develop different methods and strategies for understanding, commenting and directing this dynamic transition process correct.
 
In this context, it is necessary to follow cultural codes over “Silk Road Reference Values Institutions and Persons” which can harmonize in the concept of Silk Road and strengthen common global values. Numerous value, institution or inventory, which can be taken as a reference in all areas that include cooperation leading the culture, have been waiting to be recommended. These institutional comments, which will find a practical application area, will have a vital function for the integration and prosperity of the Silk Road initiative. Again, it is necessary to form a frame program related with Silk Road Reference Values, Institutions and Persons; to organize international activities, publications, scientific researches, media programs etc. In this context, International Silk Road Cultural Forum, which has been held twice, can be recommended.
 
For Turkey and China, the potential of dual and multidimensional strategical cooperation that has been completing each other in all of these areas is so strong that there is not another sample with any other country. 
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